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Poll: How High Can 'Avatar' Go?


 In  Action/Adventure, Directors, Box Office, Industry

In just 17 days of release, "Avatar" has already crossed the $1 billion mark in worldwide grosses, which makes it the fourth highest grosser (worldwide) of all time.

Even more astounding, if you look at the numbers, "Avatar" is experiencing very little drop off weekend to weekend. This past weekend, the film dropped only 10% from its second weekend in release. Word of mouth continues to remain strong and with ticket sales remaining high, we want to know, how high can "Avatar" go?

On Saturday, the MovieWatcher faithful had an interesting discussion about "Avatar's" ultimate haul in the comments of the weekly box office report.

Right now "Avatar" sits at $352 million domestic, and over $666 million worldwide. That means it has already passed "The Dark Knight's" worldwide total and is very close to overtaking "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest."

In fact, if you look at Box Office Mojo's worldwide charts, "Avatar" has already surpassed the "Pirates" foreign totals by a decent margin. Depending on final domestic tallies, "Avatar" could even overtake "The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" as the second-best performing worldwide film (it's practically at LOTR's domestic tally now, but that film did more than double the domestic take at the foreign box office).

However, the big question is, can "Avatar" surpass either "The Dark Knight" or "Titanic's" domestic takes? Looking at Box Office Mojo's charts, the $533 million from "The Dark Knight" looks like it might be beatable, but the $600 million from "Titanic" might be out of reach.

As Justin Gardner pointed out, the 3D element is what is really moving "Avatar" totals upward. In March, when "Alice in Wonderland" starts to take over screens, it is unlikely a 2D "Avatar" will be able to continue to pack in audiences.

If anything, the visual accomplishments of "Avatar" are potentially what could keep the film from breaking any all-time efforts, as the repeat-viewing experience isn't as strong -- even with 3D -- and it certainly isn't there in 2D. "The Dark Knight" -- and especially, "Titanic," performed as well as they did because of continual repeat viewings. I recall classmates still seeing "Titanic" during its first run in April of 1998, five months after the film first hit theaters. Realistically, "Avatar" just doesn't have the teenage girl factor that helped "Titanic" become such a huge hit.

Still, I do think "Avatar" has a solid shot at breaking $533m domestic. What do you think? Take this poll and then sound off in the comments!



Source: Variety

 

Posted by: Christina Warren | 1/3/2010 | 3:23 PM | Comments: 10
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COMMENTS

  • TOWNSMAN
    1/3/2010 | 4:18 PM

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    As far as I'm concerned, it'll beat "The Dark Knight"; and if we're lucky, it may have a shot at beating "Titanic". Still, in my book, Jim Cameron is the King of the World." From what I heard, the movie made over a little over $68 million this weekend, which I'm very happy about it. It'll definitely beat "Transformers 2".

     
  • Cinema Phreak
    1/4/2010 | 10:35 AM

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    I'm not in a Bigger market like most but it's now week 3 and seats are Still being completely sold out, I know people that have tried to go the last few days and couldn't get in. Something I wanted to bring up about the whole comparison to titanic as far as ticket sales go, Everybody always says that titanics numbers are SSOOO huge and that was with the price of tickets back then.... well they also ran that movie in theatres for like 3 months, leave any movie making huge numbers in the theatres that long and it will inflate the numbers a bit, so 800 mil or 600 mil or whatever that thing brought in was inflated b yleaving it in theatres that long IMO.

     
  • Justin At AMC
    1/4/2010 | 12:37 PM

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    My prediction is it'll end at $540 domestically, just barely beating Dark Knight.

    Reason being is Alice will grab IMAX 3D screens and 3D screens in early March, so Avatar will have to sprint to get to that mark. It'll be close, but I think it'll do it. But once those 3D screens are gone, I wonder if many folks will want to see it in 2D. Of course, I haven't seen it in 2D yet and I'm definitely curious.

     
  • JOHN-49
    1/4/2010 | 1:30 PM

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    My expectation is that Avatar will pass The Dark Knight, but not Titanic.

    Avatar is performing extremely well week-to-week, but now that the holidays are over and people are back to work and school, the box office numbers will drop. Of course, there isn't much competition in January (the exception being Book of Eli), so Avatar should be able to easily get over the $500 million mark and eventually beat The Dark Knight's $530 million. Oscar nominations in early February would only help it more.

    I agree with Justin that once Alice in Wonderland takes the IMAX and 3D screens, Avatar is finished.

     
  • Justin At AMC
    1/4/2010 | 2:34 PM

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    JOHN-49,

    I actually don't know if Book of Eli will compete and knock it off the top spot. Sure, it has Denzel in it, but that's no guarantee it'll take the weekend crown. In fact, I think Avatar could take the next two weekends until Tooth Fairy, Legion and Extraordinary Measures come out. Not a lot of family fare since Alvin, so Tooth Fairy could grab the top spot and Legion is sure to pull away some business from Avatar. We shall see!

     
  • PopcornroxXD
    1/5/2010 | 2:12 PM

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    Avatar already pasted The Dark Knight and now Titantic(worldwide). But I'm sure it will get big worldwide. And I agree with Justin, Tooth Fairy will probably grab top spot and Legion could pull away some business Avatar.

     
  • NEMESIS1428
    1/9/2010 | 9:19 AM

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    Worldwide i look for Avatar to clear the two m-billion mark. Yes, i sais TWO billion. Cameron was first to hit the one billion mark and i think Avatar is the vehicle he will hit the two billion mark with. Its a popular juggernaut that that just can't be stopped.
    His subtle use of 3-D and the sometimes overwhelming beauty of the world of Pandora will keep people coming back over and over to enjoy the experience he has created for us. There are only a handfull of films i have seen twice in a theatre and i am 62 years old and an avid movie goer. Today will be my fourth viewing of Avatar and may well not be my last.
    I can hardly wait for the next two installments!

     
  • Justin At AMC
    1/9/2010 | 12:42 PM

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    Hey, if it does 2 billion I'll be the first to tip my hat to you. But that means it has to make $840M worldwide to get there. That would be quite a feat, but if any film can do it, Avatar can.

     
  • 252377312
    1/10/2010 | 1:15 AM

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    It is the first time that I have had such a "wow" feeling from a movie in a long long time. I am sure this movie will hit epic level like "Star Wars" since it was over the top in cinematography, originalility, technology, nad overall creative energy. The subtle political commentaries along with the the touching mythological themes truly set this movie apart in the world of filmmaking. I think we experienced the first in the next generation of cinema magic! It was such a great feeling and experience to see something so new and exciting...

     
  • RLARTUNDO
    1/10/2010 | 6:00 PM

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    Loved the movie I had to go see it more than one time....

     

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